Idaho Falls, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

793
FXUS65 KPIH 131119
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
519 AM MDT Tue May 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation arrives today as a cold front begins to make
  its way through Eastern Idaho.

- Much cooler temperatures will be present Tuesday through the
  end of the week with valley rain and high mountain snow
  showers continuing off and on through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 134 AM MDT Tue May 13 2025

Early morning satellite imagery shows increasing clouds across
western and central Idaho as an upper level trough continues to move
closer to the area. The weather today will be drastically different
than what we saw just 24 hours ago with temperatures today not
likely to get out of the 50s across the region. This would be some
15-20 cooler for many locations in the Snake Plain from where we
were yesterday afternoon. These cooler than normal temperatures will
stick around for awhile in the short term with an upper low shifting
overhead by the time we get into Wednesday morning. As far as today
is concerned, hi-res models continue to show increasing
precipitation chances across the region as the trough moves closer
to our area throughout the day. Showers and even some thunderstorms
can be expected with the best thunderstorm potential likely focused
across the higher terrain zones. With an upper low settling over the
region later this evening and into the early part of the day
Wednesday, snow levels will drop to  6500-7000 ft so we could see
some snow accumulations above 7kft.

Clouds, cool temperatures and precip linger for much of the day
tomorrow, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area
with things improving slightly as we get into the second half of the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 134 AM MDT Tue May 13 2025

The low will move slowly away but a broad U/L trough will
linger over the area on Thursday. H5 heights will rise a touch and
temps will respond accordingly with a bit of an increase (by maybe 5
degrees) but still running well below seasonal norms. On Friday,
upper level flow becomes a bit more zonal which may allow for a bit
of a break from the widespread precip but we`ll still have PoPs in
the forecast across the higher terrain as some orographically
enhanced precip appears likely. The atmosphere gears up late Friday
and into Saturday for another deep trough to move into the Pacific
NW and into the Great Basin for the weekend and into the early part
of next week. This will keep clouds, cool temperatures and
widespread precipitation in the forecast for the weekend and into
the first part of next week. Still a bit of uncertainty with exact
placement of the low that is poised to develop but models and their
associated ensembles show a high probability of widespread
precipitation across eastern Idaho along with ample QPF, with at
least a half an inch appear likely for most of the forecast area
with an inch or more certainly possible based on some ensemble
members. Bottom line, expect much of the next week to feature
clouds, precip and cooler than normal temperatures for mid-May.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM MDT Tue May 13 2025

An upper level low moving over the region will bring in a prolonged
period of clouds and precipiation to eastern Idaho. CIGs will likely
stay high enough to keep things VFR for much of the day but
will be BKN/OVC for much of the period. A brief reduction to
MVFR is certainly possible with any moderate/heavy showers, or
any thunderstorms, but for now this is not forecast at any
terminals. Wind today won`t be as problematic as it was on
Monday but it`ll still be breezy at KPIH, KIDA and KBYI but
generally 15-20 kts at best. The biggest issue will be trying to
time out any more prolonged period of precipitation. Could
briefly see some -RASN at KSUN and KDIJ later tonight and early
Wednesday with any precip as snow levels will come very close to
the surface at those sites. As we get towards the end of the 12Z
forecast period, CIGs COULD potentially lower towards MVFR
conditions across the region.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...McKaughan